BMJ Global Health

BACKGROUND: Undernutrition is the leading risk factor for tuberculosis (TB), yet evidence on programmatic nutritional support during treatment is limited. Benin and Togo are neighboring West African counties. Benin provides in-kind food support to all people with drug-susceptible TB; neighbouring Togo does not. This created the opportunity for a natural experiment. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study at 13 sites in Benin and Togo (September 2023-June 2024). We compared recipients of nutritional support with non-recipients, using Beninese non-recipients as an internal comparison. Primary outcomes were [≥]5% weight gain at month 2, change in 6-minute walk test (6MWT) distance, and pill-count adherence. We used multivariable regression adjusted for pre-specified covariates. RESULTS: Of 769 participants, 450 received nutritional support and 319 did not. Recipients had higher odds of [≥]5% weight gain at month 2 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.57, 95% CI 1.13-2.19) and [≥]10% at month 6 (aOR 1.92, 1.35-2.74), greater 6MWT improvement (adjusted {beta} 40.6 m, 26.5-54.6), and higher adherence (aOR 3.43, 1.81-6.51). Mortality was lower among recipients (aOR 0.32, 0.11-0.93). Sputum conversion and treatment success did not differ. Beninese non-recipients resembled Togolese participants across outcomes. CONCLUSION: Programmatic nutritional support was associated with improved weight gain, functional recovery, adherence, and lower mortality during TB treatment, supporting its integration into national TB programmes.

Background Respiratory infections remain the leading infectious cause of death among children and adolescents, yet the share of these deaths that could be averted with currently feasible care is not routinely quantified. Existing amenable-mortality frameworks rely on cause lists and population-level mortality benchmarks and do not exploit information on how many episodes occur. We propose an episode-fatality-ratio (EFR) frontier approach and apply it to lower respiratory infections (LRI), whooping cough (pertussis) and upper respiratory infections (URI) in 204 countries, 1990-2023. Methods For each cause, country and year we computed EFR = deaths/incident episodes using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 estimates for ages 0-19 years. The frontier was defined as the 10th-percentile country EFR within each GBD super-region, cause and year; avoidable deaths = max(0, deaths - episodes x frontier EFR). Primary estimates are deterministic; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) come from 2,000 Monte Carlo draws. Sensitivity analyses varied the frontier percentile, applied an aspirational global frontier, constructed pertussis counterfactuals, and recomputed all estimates within the single under-5 age band. Results In 2023, 333,803 childhood deaths from lower respiratory infections (95% UI 289,123-417,460; 46.9% of LRI deaths) were avoidable. Summing the three causes deterministically gives 391,034 avoidable deaths (46.5% of 840,444); the combined figure is a deterministic sum, and a UI is available for the LRI component only. The pertussis (43,958; 39.0%) and URI (13,273; 81.0%) estimates are secondary: their deterministic point values fall below their own Monte Carlo intervals and the underlying death estimates carry very wide uncertainty (global pertussis UI 12,545-321,874). Avoidable deaths fell from 1,050,468 (44.9%) in 1990, but between 2019 and 2023 the avoidable share for LRI+URI barely moved (48.7% to 47.7%) while absolute avoidable deaths fell 14.5%, a pattern consistent with stalled convergence to the frontier. Sub-Saharan Africa plus South Asia held 73.1% of avoidable deaths in 2023 versus 41.8% in 1990; ten countries accounted for 59.1%. Conclusion Nearly half of childhood respiratory-infection deaths remain avoidable relative to within-region best practice, and the residual burden is increasingly concentrated in low-income settings. In the pertussis counterfactual, most countries kept pace with their regional frontier, so further gains require advancing the frontier itself through quality-of-care improvements.

Despite significant progress in reducing vaccine-preventable diseases, Cameroons Expanded Programme on Immunisation operates within structures shaped by colonial history. Overreliance on external donor funding, centralised governance, and limited recognition of local knowledge raise concerns about equity, local ownership, and programme sustainability, particularly as the country plans for donor transition and self-financing. This study, aligned with the decolonising global health movement, examines how colonial legacies shape stakeholders experiences within the EPI and proposes practical steps towards a more locally owned immunisation programme. A qualitative case study was conducted in the Southwest Region of Cameroon from June to July 2025, comprising fifteen online semi-structured interviews in English with selected stakeholders (regional and district EPI managers, civil society members, and community leaders). Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analysed thematically using Clarke and Brauns six-step framework in NVivo version 11. Participants identified subtle colonial influences, including centralised decision-making, donor-driven priorities, pay disparities favouring international actors over local staff, and the marginalisation of local and traditional knowledge. The COVID-19 response was frequently cited as an example of inequity, with Western biomedical approaches prioritised over locally led solutions. Major structural issues included heavy reliance on external funding, outdated colonial-era training curricula, centralised governance, and a lack of local vaccine manufacturing capacity. Despite these issues, participants recognised the significant technical and financial support from international organisations. They proposed concrete pathways for decolonisation, including decentralised governance, participatory programme design, regulation and integration of traditional medicine, community engagement, domestic resource mobilisation, leveraging Cameroons emerging universal health coverage to reduce donor dependence, and investing in local vaccine production. Conclusion: Colonial legacies continue to influence Cameroons EPI, undermining local ownership and self-determination, even when external support is effective. Achieving decolonisation requires multifaceted efforts to strengthen domestic financing and governance, empower local stakeholders, and legitimise local knowledge alongside biomedical approaches. Policymakers should embed local ownership, governance reforms, and local capacity building in transition strategies while donor funding persists, ensuring immunisation gains are sustained beyond external support. These insights provide a context-specific roadmap for developing a sustainable, equitable, and locally driven immunisation programme in Cameroon and other countries facing similar donor transitions.

Background: Neonatal mortality remains disproportionately high in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), accounting for nearly half of all deaths in children under five. Although antenatal care, skilled birth attendance, and postnatal care are individually associated with improved newborn survival, few studies have examined whether their integrated receipt as a continuum of care (CoC) confers additional protection against neonatal death, particularly after accounting for sociodemographic confounding and heterogeneity across country contexts. Methods: A pooled cross-sectional analysis was conducted using DHS-8 Births Recode files from five countries: Nigeria (2024), Mali (2023-2024), Congo DRC (2023-2024), Kenya (2022), and Lesotho (2023-2024). The analytical sample comprised 37,351 births within the 36-month postnatal care reference window. Complete CoC was defined as receipt of adequate antenatal care ([≥]4 visits with first-trimester initiation), skilled birth attendance, and postnatal care within 48 hours for the mother or newborn. Neonatal mortality was defined as death within 27 days of birth. Survey-weighted logistic and log-Poisson regression models estimated adjusted odds ratios (aOR) and adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR). G-computation quantified the population attributable fraction (PAF). Country-specific heterogeneity was examined through random-effects meta-analysis (DerSimonian-Laird method) and a two-level multilevel logistic regression model. Results: The overall neonatal mortality rate was 29.3 per 1,000 live births (95% CI: 27.6-31.0). Complete CoC prevalence was 19.2% (95% CI: 18.5-19.9%), ranging from 7.8% in Congo DRC to 47.8% in Lesotho. In unadjusted analysis, complete CoC was associated with a 24% reduction in neonatal death odds (cOR: 0.764, 95% CI: 0.583-1.000, p = 0.050). After adjustment for wealth, education, residence, parity, maternal age, child sex, and country, the association was substantially attenuated and non-significant (aOR: 0.961, 95% CI: 0.717-1.289; aPR: 0.962, 95% CI: 0.722-1.282). The PAF under universal complete CoC was 3.2%. The pooled meta-analytic estimate was aOR 0.718 (95% CI: 0.447-1.152), with moderate heterogeneity (I{superscript 2} = 38.9%; {tau}{superscript 2} = 0.089). Country-specific estimates ranged from aOR 0.455 (95% CI: 0.256-0.810) in Kenya to 1.447 (95% CI: 0.496-4.220) in Lesotho. Conclusion: Complete continuity of maternal healthcare was not independently associated with reduced neonatal mortality after full adjustment, suggesting that the unadjusted benefit was attributable to sociodemographic selection rather than a direct causal pathway. These findings underscore the insufficiency of service utilisation metrics in isolation and highlight the need to address the structural and contextual determinants that simultaneously constrain both care access and neonatal survival. Country-level heterogeneity in the CoC-mortality relationship points to the importance of tailored, context-specific interventions.

Background Climate change and extreme weather events (EWEs) threaten health systems, disrupt continuity of HIV and TB services, amplify communicable disease burdens, and exacerbate health inequities in South Africa. Yet few empirical studies have quantified district-level vulnerability, where HIV and TB service delivery and climate adaptation are operationalised. Methods We developed a district-level composite HIV/TB Vulnerability Index, integrating indicators of HIV & tuberculosis burden (sensitivity), health system capacity, and socio-economic vulnerability. We also developed a Hazard Index which when combined with the HIV/TB vulnerability Index, identifies districts where underlying vulnerability coincides with higher likelihood of EWEs. Indicators were drawn from national surveys, routine health information systems, and international hazard datasets, normalised using a min-max scaling, and aggregated with equal weighting. Sensitivity analysis were conducted to assess the robustness of the composite indices. Findings The most vulnerable districts were located in the Northern Cape, Eastern Cape and KwaZulu Natal provinces where high HIV/TB burden and socio-economic sensitivity coincided with limited health system adaptive capacity. In contrast, the least vulnerable districts, were concentrated in Gauteng and Western Cape, reflecting stronger health system capacity and more favourable socio-economic conditions. Hazard exposure exhibited a clear spatial division with western districts experiencing greater heat stress and eastern districts facing higher flood and heavy-rainfall hazards. When hazard exposure was combined with the HIV/TB vulnerability Index, districts with both high vulnerability and hazard scores clustered predominantly along the east coast (Ugu, uMkhanyakude, and Harry Gwala in KwaZulu-Natal, and O.R. Tambo and Alfred Nzo in the Eastern Cape). Interpretation South Africa's district-level vulnerability to climate and weather hazards is driven by the convergence of high HIV/TB burden, constrained health system capacity, and socio-economic disadvantage. Where this vulnerability intersects with increased hazard risk, it creates a compound susceptibility that needs attention. Our findings provide evidence for geographically targeted adaptation, prioritising continuity of HIV/TB services, health system resilience, and hazard-specific preparedness.

Background Lower respiratory infections (LRI) remain the leading infectious cause of death in children, and survival once ill is a direct tracer of health-system quality. Whether countries are converging toward the best survival performance achieved within their own region has never been tested at national level. We measured each country's distance to an empirical episode-fatality-ratio (EFR) frontier in 204 countries from 1990 to 2023. Methods For each country and year we computed EFR = LRI deaths/incident episodes using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 estimates for ages 0-19 years. Deaths span the full 1990-2023 series; episodes are observed for 1990, 2019 and 2023, with intermediate years linearly interpolated. The frontier was the 10th-percentile country EFR within each GBD super-region and year (sensitivity: 5th and 25th percentiles); the gap = EFR_country/EFR_frontier. We classified 33-year gap trajectories into catch-up phenotypes, ranked COVID-window (2019-2023) movers, cross-tabulated gap against avoidable deaths to build a priority list, and benchmarked upper respiratory infections (URI) at three time points as a near-zero-fatality contrast. Findings The median country's gap was 1.86 in 1990, 1.80 in 2019 and 1.86 in 2023; the share of countries more than twice their regional frontier was 44.6% in 1990 and 46.6% in 2023. Of 137 eligible countries, 67 narrowed and 69 widened their gap, with one unchanged. Nineteen countries achieved sustained catch-up, concentrated in North Africa and the Middle East (7) and Latin America (5), with China closing from 2.43 to 0.50, below its regional frontier; 28 countries regressed, led by Central Asia (Uzbekistan x3.5) and including the United States (x2.0). Over the COVID-19 window the median gap peaked at 2.00 in 2021 (+10.8% versus 2019, from unrounded medians) before returning to 1.86. Combining gap with avoidable deaths identifies two distinct policy problems: high-burden, moderate-gap giants (Nigeria 67,490 avoidable deaths, gap 2.4; India 54,109, gap 1.6) and extreme-gap outliers (Uzbekistan, gap 28.6). The Sub-Saharan Africa frontier fell further behind the High-income frontier (ratio 4.2 in 1990, 9.5 in 2023); the median Sub-Saharan African country sits 11.0 times the global 10th-percentile frontier but only 1.78 times its own regional frontier, so within-region benchmarking understates the region's true distance. URI gaps likewise did not converge (median 4.15 to 4.60). Interpretation Convergence toward the survival frontier is not the default national trajectory: over three decades the typical country made no net progress toward the best decile of its own region, and pandemic-era divergence was only partly reversed. National gap trajectories separate system-wide quality shortfalls from extreme outliers warranting audit, and expose a measurement trap in which regions whose frontiers stagnate appear closer to best practice than they are.

Introduction Safe and timely blood availability remains a major global health challenge, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Digital tools may accelerate donor contact, but digital reachability alone does not ensure that people will notice, trust and act on urgent requests to support blood donation efforts. We examined factors associated with anticipated engagement in digitally coordinated urgent blood-donor mobilisation among digitally reachable adults in Ghana. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional online survey from September 2025 to January 2026 across Ghana's 16 regions. Participants were recruited via Facebook advertising and snowball sampling. Factors associated with urgent blood-donor mobilisability were assessed under four criteria: high future-donation willingness; high willingness to install a trusted donation app; high willingness to respond to a trusted urgent-request; and high practical flexibility to leave current activities. Descriptive analyses and multivariable logistic regression examined prevalence and associated factors. Results Among 1,067 participants, 577 (54.1%) met all four criteria. Future-donation willingness (91.8%), trusted-app installation willingness (83.2%) and trusted-request response willingness (82.7%) were common, whereas practical flexibility was lower (66.6%). In the adjusted model, high formal health-system trust (adjusted OR (AOR) 3.95, 95% CI 2.08-7.50), high digital-response readiness (AOR 2.26, 1.66-3.08), previous donation (AOR 1.47, 1.08-2.01), high donation knowledge (AOR 1.42, 1.03-1.97) and willingness to donate to strangers were positively associated with high mobilisability. Women (AOR 0.60, 0.43-0.83), participants reporting a work-schedule barrier (AOR 0.43, 0.29-0.66) and those travelling over 30 min to the nearest healthcare facility at night (AOR 0.66, 0.45-0.96) had lower adjusted odds. Conclusions Digital reachability and stated donation willingness may overestimate the population pool available for emergency donation. Digital blood-donor solutions should consider verifiable health-system requests, account for response readiness and current availability, and connect willing individuals with accessible collection options and transport support where needed.

Background. Nigeria carries one of the world's largest burdens of neonatal death and remains far from the Sustainable Development Goal target. Whether health financing and macroeconomic instability are associated with newborn survival has rarely been examined for neonatal mortality specifically. Methods. We conducted an ecological time-series analysis of national annual data, covering 1990-2024 for macroeconomic models (n = 35) and 2000-2023 for health-financing models (n = 24), the periods for which published data exist; no values were imputed. Neonatal mortality came from the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation 2025 round with 90% uncertainty intervals, and other series from the World Development Indicators. The primary model regressed log neonatal mortality on government health expenditure per capita (purchasing power parity), out-of-pocket share and currency instability, with a linear trend, a post-break trend spline and Newey-West standard errors; first differences without trend terms were the main sensitivity analysis. The break was located by segmented regression; currency instability was tested under four constructions. Results. The decline broke around 2010, the trend moving from -0.74 to +0.14 deaths per 1,000 annually (F = 145.4, p < 0.001). The subsequent rise fell within estimation uncertainty (2012: 37.6, 90% interval 33.9-41.5; 2022: 39.3, 33.4-46.4), supporting stagnation rather than reversal; Demographic and Health Surveys concur, reporting 42 per 1,000 for the five years preceding the 1990 survey and 41 preceding the 2024 survey. Government health expenditure per capita was inversely associated with neonatal mortality (-0.040, 95% CI -0.051 to -0.029, p < 0.001; first differences -0.016, p = 0.033) and was the only expenditure measure surviving both specifications; share-of-GDP measures did not (p = 0.196 and 0.889) and correlated positively in raw terms. Currency instability showed no association under any construction (p = 0.65-0.83). Public expenditure per capita moved non-monotonically, peaking in 2005, falling by 2010 and recovering by 2023 to a level still below the 2005 peak. Conclusions. Neonatal mortality in Nigeria is ecologically associated with public health expenditure per capita, but not with commonly used share-based measures, nor with currency instability. Rising public spending accompanied stalled progress, directing attention toward how health resources are converted into services. Annual modelled mortality estimates could not support year-to-year inference, a limitation relevant to comparable studies

Antimicrobial resistance is a growing threat to health systems, but stewardship programs must compete for funding with many urgent health priorities in low- and middle-income countries. Evidence that quantifies not only effectiveness but also economic value is therefore essential for policy and budget decisions. We evaluated targeted antimicrobial stewardship programs in four tertiary hospitals in Nepal and Laos using interrupted time-series analyses of antibiotic use, combined with micro-costing to estimate benefit-cost ratios. Stewardship was associated with immediate reductions in antibiotic use across the three Nepal hospitals, whereas effects in Laos were more heterogeneous. Economic returns were positive across sites, with the largest returns observed in the private hospital in Nepal. Here, we show that pragmatic, ward-focused stewardship can reduce antibiotic use and generate measurable economic value in resource-constrained hospital settings, supporting its prioritization as a scalable investment for antimicrobial resistance control.

All primary healthcare centers owned by the Ugandan government in the Western Region of Uganda were submitted to a questionnaire concerning current availability of POCT from the Essential diagnostic List 2 part 1a and 1b, and the African laboratory inventory done by African Society of Laboratory Medicine and AfricaCDC. The data from the questionnaire was then linked to open source geodata provided by TomTom, and population data to calculate and visualize the accessibility of captured POCT. Findings: Availability of POCT Malaria is almost 100%, HIV 68-90%, and >30% for a majority of the POCT in the EDL-2 panel. 90% of the population in Western Region live within 1 hour by car from most of the essential POCT. Figures in the complementary web-based application visualize the accessibility of POCT for Western Uganda. Diagnostic deserts are visualized. Interpretation: Access to POCT at primary health care facilities in western Uganda has expanded substantially over the past decades. The geo-mapping tool presented here could inform policy decisions on strengthening diagnostic capacity at the national, regional, and provincial level. Funding: Swedish Research Council and Infravis All supplementary materials and a preprint of this submission are available on our OSF repository https://osf.io/j7puk/.

Background Community health workers (CHWs) are central to universal health coverage strategies across sub-Saharan Africa. Yet whether CHW programs equitably reach women across socioeconomic and demographic groups remains poorly characterized at the multi-country level. Methods A cross-sectional secondary analysis of Standard DHS-8 data from Ghana (2022), Kenya (2022), Tanzania (2022), and Malawi (2024) was conducted (N = 68,019 women aged 15-49). The primary outcome was self-reported contact with a CHW or fieldworker in the prior 12 months. Survey-weighted logistic regression was performed using Taylor series linearization to account for complex survey design, both individually per country and pooled. The RE-AIM framework guided the evaluation of program reach. Results National CHW coverage varied 7-fold, from 3.1% in Tanzania to 22.8% in Malawi. The most consistent cross-country equity finding was by age: women aged 15-19 had approximately half the adjusted odds of CHW contact compared to women aged 25-29 in every country (pooled aOR = 0.47, 95% CI [0.42, 0.52], p < .001). Pro-poor wealth gradients were significant in Kenya and Malawi, whereas Ghana achieved equitable reach across all wealth quintiles (p = .685). Rural residence was independently associated with higher CHW contact in Kenya (aOR = 1.48) and Malawi (aOR = 1.91). Conclusions Adolescent women aged 15-19 are systematically underserved by CHW programs across sub-Saharan Africa, a finding consistent across four countries with widely different program scales. This adolescent gap is the most consistent equity finding across the dataset, persisting across all four countries regardless of program scale, wealth distribution, or governance structure. Ghana's Community-based Health Planning and Services (CHPS) program demonstrates that equitable CHW reach across wealth quintiles is achievable at scale. Kenya's extreme within-county variation indicates that sub-national governance quality is a dominant driver of equity. Targeted strategies, including CHW protocol redesign and school-based outreach, are urgently needed to close the adolescent reach gap.

Abstract Preventable neonatal deaths remain a major public health problem in Zimbabwe, where near-universal antenatal and facility-delivery coverage coexist with a rising neonatal mortality rate. This study evaluated whether institutionalising three core "vital signs" of the community health system (a trained village health worker (VHW) workforce, functional community governance structures, and modified women's and men's participatory learning and action groups) reduces preventable neonatal deaths in Mashonaland West Province. An embedded QUAN (qual) mixed-methods design was used, with a two-arm, parallel-group cluster-randomised controlled trial as the dominant strand. Fifty-two ward-level clusters were randomised 1:1 to the institutionalised community health system package or to standard Ministry of Health and Child Care community services, and 984 pregnant women were enrolled between 1 September 2020 and 31 October 2021, with each mother-infant pair followed to 28 days after delivery, yielding 973 mother-infant pairs for intention-to-treat analysis. The primary outcome was neonatal death within 28 days of life, expressed per 1,000 live births. The primary analysis used a three-level mixed-effects log-binomial regression model with cluster and community-health-worker random intercepts, adjusted for pre-specified covariates. Supervised machine-learning classifiers with leave-one-cluster-out cross-validation, Cox proportional-hazards regression, and multilevel logistic models were fitted as supplementary analyses. An embedded longitudinal process evaluation used key informant interviews and focus group discussions, which were analysed thematically and integrated with the quantitative findings. The neonatal mortality rate was 44.8 per 1,000 live births in the intervention arm versus 110.1 per 1,000 in the control arm. The adjusted risk ratio for neonatal death was 0.43 (95% CI 0.26-0.70; p < 0.001), a 57% relative reduction, with a number needed to treat of 16 mother-infant pairs (95% CI 11-29). Low birthweight (<2,500 g), birth interval under two years, and low community women's literacy were the strongest risk factors, while trained VHWs, functional community governance, early antenatal care, and sustained participatory group attendance were independently protective. The women's and men's groups were protective in a dose-dependent manner, becoming significant at four or more cycles (about 14 meetings) (adjusted odds ratio 0.71; 95% CI 0.60-0.85; p = 0.001). A random forest classifier discriminated against neonatal deaths with a cross-validated area under the curve of 0.842 and a sensitivity of 0.912. Qualitative findings converged with the trial results, identifying male engagement, earlier care-seeking, danger-sign literacy, social-network activation, and community death audits as the behavioural and structural mechanisms of change. Institutionalising the community health system package (trained VHWs, functional governance, early antenatal engagement, and sustained participatory groups) was associated with a substantial reduction in preventable neonatal deaths. The findings suggest that in high-coverage, high-mortality settings, the binding constraint is structural rather than clinical, and that scaling functional community governance and workforce infrastructure in the most disadvantaged communities may accelerate progress toward neonatal survival targets. The principal limitations are a one-year follow-up period, the rarity of neonatal death, and concurrent national programming that only partially reached the control clusters. Trial registration: Pan African Clinical Trials Registry, PACTR202607591142118 (https://pactr.samrc.ac.za/TrialDisplay.aspx?TrialID=PACTR202607591142118); registered retrospectively on 7 July 2026.

Malaria programmes increasingly rely on modelled evidence to support intervention prioritisation, resource allocation, and elimination planning, yet a persistent gap remains between technical modelling outputs and their use in decision-making. We describe the design, implementation, and early outcomes of the Regional Malaria Modelling Translational Fellowship, a six-month executive education programme delivered in 2025 to 21 fellows nominated by national malaria programmes in seven African countries. The Fellowship was designed to strengthen translational capacity by focusing on question formulation, systems thinking, model design and critique, interpretation of outputs, uncertainty, health economics, communication, and stakeholder engagement. The hybrid structure combined three intensive in-person blocks with regular virtual sessions. Country-teams work on capstone projects throughout the Fellowship, applying learnings to develop policy-relevant modelling proposals aligned with national malaria priorities. The programme was accredited as a University of Cape Town short course, which supported credibility, participant commitment, and institutional endorsement. Early evaluation showed improvements across all competency domains, with the largest gains in fellows' confidence in applying modelling to decision-making, translating model findings into recommendations, and communicating technical results to non-technical audiences. Qualitative feedback suggested that the Fellowship helped shift participants' engagement with modelling from passive acceptance of results toward critical interpretation, collaborative dialogue, and practical application. These findings suggest that translational, executive-style training can strengthen the interface between modelling and malaria policy. The publicly available curriculum offers a replicable framework that may be adapted for other infectious disease and public health settings where modelling evidence is increasingly central to decision-making.

A common barrier to insecticide-treated net (ITN) use, the backbone of malaria prevention, is heat discomfort. Using multilevel regression models, we quantified the association between temperature and ITN use reported in Demographic and Health and Malaria Indicator Surveys from 2011-2022 across 28 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Marginal predicted probability of use was unimodal with nighttime temperature and decreased above a threshold daytime temperature. For women (n=731,947), temperatures above specified thresholds were associated with lower use, with adjusted odds ratios [aOR] 0.91 for daytime (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.88-0.94) and 0.87 for nighttime (95% CI 0.85-0.91). For children under 5 (n=524,926), corresponding aOR were 0.87 (95% CI 0.84-0.91) and 0.86 (95% CI 0.83-0.90). Considering a counterfactual in which temperatures never exceeded these thresholds, we estimated 25.8 million (95% CI 14.4-38.2 million) cases of malaria attributable to heat-associated non-use. These results demonstrate the importance of considering climate-behavior interactions for malaria control.

Background Trial participation effect, defined as a change in clinical outcomes associated with trial enrolment regardless of allocation, is understudied in neonatal trials in low- and middle income countries (LMIC), despite its importance for trial design, interpretation, and research ethics. This study aimed to quantify the trial participation effect and explore potential ways by which research participation may influence neonatal survival. Methods This observational cohort study included neonates weighing <2Kg and aged <24h who were admitted to a Gambian referral hospital and either enrolled in a clinical trial comparing early versus later KMC (eKMC trial;2018 to 2020) or not enrolled due to operational constraints and hence received standard, non research care. All infants were prospectively followed until inpatient discharge or death. The eKMC trial previously found no important effect of early KMC on all cause neonatal mortality. For this analysis, inpatient mortality rates were compared using a generalised linear model, adjusting for baseline differences in participant characteristics. Prospectively collected data on small and sick newborn care readiness and delivery during the trial period were used to explore how trial participation may have influenced survival. Results A total of 545 neonates were included: 279 enrolled in the trial and 266 not enrolled, predominantly due to the absence of an available caregiver. Baseline characteristics were similar between groups, although differences were seen in twin status, place of birth, and age at admission. Trial participation was associated with an absolute reduction in inpatient mortality of 6.3% (22.6% (63/279) among enrolled versus 28.9% (77/266) among non enrolled) and a relative reduction of 29% (aRR 0.71, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.96). This association varied by season, with no evidence of benefit during the dry season (aRR 0.97, 95% CI 0.60 to 1.58), but a 40% reduction in adjusted mortality risk during the rainy season (aRR 0.60, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.87)(Interaction test: p=0.086). Trial participants had access to laboratory diagnostics and received more intensive clinical monitoring, including higher staffing ratios, continuous pulse oximetry, structured education of carers on neonatal danger signs, and enhanced scrutiny of clinical management compared to neonates receiving routine care. Conclusion Trial participation was associated with a substantial reduction in inpatient mortality, suggesting that participation effects should be considered when designing, interpreting, and reporting neonatal clinical trials in LMIC settings. The association was evident only during the rainy season. The participation effect may have been mediated by increased clinical oversight and monitoring, additional nursing support, and access to diagnostic investigations, all of which should be prioritised within routine care to accelerate progress towards SDG neonatal survival targets.

Background Malaria remains a major public health challenge in Indonesia, with transmission concentrated in several eastern regions. A systematic overview of national research activity is needed to show how scientific priorities have changed and whether the evidence base is aligned with elimination needs. Methodology/Principal findings We conducted a scoping review and bibliometric analysis of Scopus-indexed malaria publications from 2015 to 2025 following PRISMA-ScR guidance. Records were screened for an Indonesian institutional affiliation or an explicit Indonesia-specific study component. Publication trends, co-authorship, keyword networks, citation patterns, thematic evolution, and exploratory forecasts were analysed. Keyword text was represented using term frequency-inverse document frequency and grouped with K-means clustering. The initial candidate set contained 592 publications; four false-positive records were excluded, leaving 588 eligible Indonesia-related publications. Of these, 583 had an Indonesian affiliation identifiable in the exported Scopus metadata and 586 had usable keyword metadata for thematic analysis. Ten clusters were identified. Environmental and Community-Based Studies was the largest theme (110/586, 18.77%), followed by Plasmodium Species and Clinical Parasitology (85/586, 14.51%), Molecular Diagnostics (76/586, 12.97%), Treatment and Antimalarial Drugs (69/586, 11.77%), and Health Systems and Malaria Control Programs (67/586, 11.43%). Treatment-related research had the greatest total and mean citation impact. Publication output accumulated continuously without a clear plateau. Forecasts suggested the strongest continued growth in environmental and community-based research, while treatment and health-system themes were comparatively stable. Conclusions/Significance Indonesian malaria research became more diverse while retaining strong clinical and treatment foundations. Future research planning should balance biomedical priorities with environmental, community, diagnostic, and implementation research. Forecasts are exploratory and should not be interpreted as precise predictions.

Background: Neonatal mortality remains a significant public health challenge in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA). The continuum of maternal care (COC), spanning antenatal care (ANC), skilled birth attendance (SBA), and postnatal care (PNC) represents an integrated pathway to improving neonatal survival. Multi-country evidence on how adherence to this full continuum affects neonatal outcomes across SSA is limited. Objectives: This study aimed to: (1) construct a composite COC indicator and describe its sociodemographic distribution; (2) estimate its association with neonatal mortality; (3) conduct a counterfactual analysis; and (4) examine cross country heterogeneity in the COC effect on neonatal mortality. Methods: Pooled Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from 35 SSA countries (2010 to 2026) were analyzed (N = 867,984 live births). A binary CoC indicator (coc1 = 1 if mother received [&ge;]4 ANC visits, skilled birth attendance, and PNC within 48 hours) was constructed. Survey-weighted logistic regression adjusted for wealth, education, residence, parity, maternal age, child sex, child age, and country. Counterfactual predictive margins and a COC and country interaction model were estimated in Stata 18. Results: Only 13.47% of mothers met the full COC threshold. COC completion was higher among wealthier, urban, more educated, and lower-parity women. After adjustment, CoC receipt was associated with significantly lower odds of neonatal death (aOR = 0.638, 95% CI: 0.577 - 0.706, p < 0.001). Counterfactual analysis showed the predicted neonatal mortality probability would fall from 3.15% (no CoC) to 2.04% (full CoC), an absolute risk reduction of 1.11 percentage points. Cross-country interaction terms were largely non-significant; only Namibia reached significance (p = 0.036). Conclusion: Completion of the full continuum of maternal care is independently associated with reduced neonatal mortality across SSA. Equity focused policies should prioritize integrated service delivery for rural, poor, and less educated women.

Background The historic decline in childhood pneumonia mortality was driven substantially by single-pathogen vaccines against Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) and Streptococcus pneumoniae. Yet the pathogen spectrum underlying child pneumonia deaths is diversifying: the effective number of pathogens rose from 5.57 in 1990 to 9.94 in 2023, and the residual burden is shifting toward opportunistic and hospital-associated pathogens for which no licensed childhood vaccines exist. This paper asks how resources should be sequenced between single-pathogen interventions and platform investments as this transition proceeds. Methods We analyzed Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 deaths from 29 pathogens in ages 0-19 years by super-region, combined with WHO/UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage (WUENIC) for PCV3 and Hib3. We quantified the spectrum transition under two denominators (26- and 29-pathogen calibers), constructed a share-by-intervenability matrix assigning each pathogen to a dominant intervention channel (vaccine-reachable, mixed, platform-sensitive) under explicit classification rules, compared platform-sensitive deaths with a transparently computed scenario of residual vaccine-preventable deaths, and cross-classified pathogens by age tropism and poverty lock. We anchored platform interventions to verified published evidence. Results The vaccine-preventable group share fell from 54.0% to 40.2% while the opportunistic/hospital group rose from 18.1% to 23.1% (29-pathogen caliber, 1990-2023). Super-region vaccine coverage showed no significant association with pathogen-share change (PCV3 Spearman rho = 0.108, p = 0.818; Hib3 rho = -0.036, p = 0.939), a null result we report as evidence that simple coverage-burden correlations do not hold at the regional level, not as evidence against vaccine value. In 2023, vaccine-reachable pathogens accounted for 441,410 deaths (45.7%, channel including COVID-19), mixed for 126,926 (13.1%), and platform-sensitive pathogens for 396,995 (41.1%). Platform-sensitive deaths were 2.9-5.1 times the scenario estimate of residual vaccine-preventable deaths (52,435-77,512). Nine of 14 classifiable pathogens fell into the poverty-locked, infant-tropic cell (480,922 deaths; Fisher OR = 9.0, p = 0.1758). Conclusions The marginal value of single-pathogen strategies declines as the spectrum diversifies and residual deaths concentrate in platform-sensitive, poverty-locked, infant-tropic pathogens. Vaccine scale-up remains a certain and sizeable opportunity; the next increment of marginal resources should increasingly fund platform capabilities (oxygen systems, antimicrobial access and stewardship, infection prevention and control, referral, and nutrition) delivered as a package to the populations where the residual burden is locked.

Background Childhood respiratory infectious deaths are partitioned across four Global Burden of Disease cause modules-26 etiological attributions within lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, COVID-19, and whooping cough-never jointly reported. Whether the structure of this combined mortality spectrum has changed over time, and with what implications for intervention design, has not been quantified. We assembled and analyzed the integrated spectrum for children and adolescents aged 0-19 years, 1990-2023. Methods We integrated Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 (release v8352) estimates into a 29-node spectrum-26 lower respiratory infection etiologies plus tuberculosis, COVID-19, and pertussis-globally and across seven super-regions, with uncertainty propagated by summing bounds. We computed Shannon diversity, Herfindahl concentration, and effective cause counts; phenotyped pandemic-window collapse and rebound per cause; linked pathogen shares to WHO/UNICEF vaccine coverage; and mapped geographic concentration in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Reporting follows GATHER. Results In 2023 the 29 causes jointly accounted for 965,330 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 680,096-1,342,437). Shannon diversity rose from 2.336 to 2.711 (+16.1%) between 1990 and 2023; the effective number of causes nearly doubled (5.57 to 9.94), inversely coupled to total deaths (Spearman rho = -0.997). Whooping cough ranked second (112,954 deaths; 95% UI 64,576-185,708; 11.7%) and showed the spectrum's only rebound above 100% (-57.4% collapse, +111.0% rebound). Tuberculosis ranked third (87,764; 57,779-124,912; 9.1%) with the highest concentration in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia (87.1%). COVID-19 entered at rank five (52,899; 47,275-59,183; 5.5%). Nineteen of 29 causes exceeded the poverty-lock threshold (>80.59% of deaths in sub-Saharan Africa plus South Asia). Conclusions Childhood respiratory infectious mortality has become more diverse and more concentrated in poverty as it has declined. Single-pathogen interventions now address a shrinking share; the spectrum's structure argues for platform interventions-oxygen, antimicrobial access, referral-tailored jointly by age and geography, implying that pathogen-specific strategies alone cannot finish the remaining mortality agenda.

Introduction. By the end of 2023, many low-income countries had not reached 50% COVID-19 vaccine coverage, while most high-income countries had exceeded 80%. It remains unclear whether receiving vaccine deliveries translated into faster population coverage. We examined cross-national inequalities in the timing of the vaccine rollout and whether deliveries through the COVID-19 Vaccines Global Access (COVAX) facility were associated with subsequent national uptake. Methods. We conducted an observational study of 218 countries and territories using country-level data up to December 2023. We used generalized additive mixed models to identify country-level correlates of coverage at an early and a later stage of the pandemic, survival analysis to compare the time to 50% coverage between COVAX Advance Market Commitment (AMC) and non-AMC countries, and an event study to estimate the association between the timing of the first COVAX delivery and subsequent monthly coverage in AMC countries. Results. AMC-supported countries reached 50% coverage substantially more slowly than non-AMC countries. The hazard of reaching the threshold was 0.17 times that of non-AMC countries at month 1 (95% CI 0.07 to 0.41) and 0.53 times at month 18 (95% CI 0.33 to 0.85). One year after rollout began, 65.9% of AMC countries (95% CI 56.7 to 76.6) had not reached 50% coverage, compared with 21.1% of non-AMC countries (95% CI 15.1 to 29.5). The timing of COVAX deliveries was not significantly associated with subsequent national uptake in any post-delivery month. In the early stage of rollout, higher maternal mortality was associated with lower coverage, while a larger urban population was associated with higher coverage. By the end of the observation period, larger household size was associated with lower coverage, while higher health expenditure and a larger urban population were associated with higher coverage. Conclusion. Receiving COVAX deliveries was not, on its own, associated with faster coverage. Coverage differences were more consistently associated with country-level structural and health-system characteristics, while we found no significant association with the timing of the first COVAX delivery. Achieving vaccine equality likely requires strengthening the capacity of health systems to convert deliveries into administered doses, and preparedness efforts should invest in last-mile delivery capacity ahead of future emergencies.